Dota 2 and Valve are in a stalemate. Why is it better for Dota 2 teams to lose than to win? Or it is a consequence of the new DPC system

From the beginning, it was clear that the DPC system imperfect. The new format of Leagues and Major events seemed relatively clear, but it had its own pitfalls from the very beginning. Criticism fell on the organizers literally immediately, due to the number of games per week due to the rules of player substitutions, and of course, due to the distribution of points at main events and regional leagues.

It is necessary to Lose the battle to win the war

Ben “Noxville” Steinhuisen collects statistics and data on esports. According to his calculations, it is more profitable for the Undying team to lose to the regional favorite Quincy Crew.

Let’s look at the causal relationship. Valve tried to combine the two selection systems, create “Frankenstein”, but unfortunately, they outplayed themselves. So, as planned, the team can get to The International in two different ways.

• – To enter the TOP – 12 teams of the world by DPC points.
• – To win regional qualifications.

It is because of this that this situation has turned out. If the team, the region leader, hits the Top – 12, it automatically gets a ticket to The International. In this case, the team no longer needs to participate in regional qualifications. Thus, teams that are inferior to the region’s favorites in strength can specifically lose to the leaders so that the latter score the required number of points and do not take part in regional qualifiers. The losing team immediately has an advantage since the favorite will not take part in the qualifiers, which increases the team’s statistical chances of winning.

Live example

The North American Region best describes this situation. Undying and Quincy Crew go hand in hand in DPC points. If Undying wins the next game, the Quincy Crew will advance to the regional qualifiers. As a result, undying will earn 700 DPC points, which gives them a 52% chance of making it to The International. But suppose Undying deliberately loses to Quincy Crew. In that case, the latter will take first place and guarantee themselves a trip to The International. At the same time, Undying will go to the regional qualifiers, getting rid of the most unwanted competitor, albeit for a while. And this will increase the Undying team’s chances of getting to The International from 52% to conditional 65%, depending on the opponent.

Although this also has its own nuances, removing a strong opponent still does not give you a 100% chance of winning the regional qualifiers. Dota 2 is a game of one fight. + 30k to the net worth does not mean that you won, and there is always a chance to concede to an outsider and generally stay at home.

Why is this happening, and why give way to an opponent and guarantee his trip to The International if you meet at the tournament anyway. The answer is, on the surface, it’s money. Having a higher chance of getting to The International is very motivating for the teams, even if they don’t take a high place at the tournament itself. Furthermore, this year the prize pool is so large that even for 5-6 places, the team can get more prize money than NaVi received for winning the first TI.

Valve why?

The scheme of succumbing to an opponent is pretty far-fetched, but it works. Whether Valve will change the DPC system is unclear and unknown since it was conceived completely differently. The organizers counted on at least three leagues, but the third league was not assembled due to the lack of suitable teams and match-fixing in Tier – 3 Dota. Also, according to the VALVorganizers themselves, there should have been three Majors, not two. But because of the “bad time management” (for now, let’s call it that), the official announcement of the first Major was postponed due to the pandemic, then qualifications began, which lasted more than a month. And it turned out that there is no time to do the third Major after the Kyiv Anime Major and before TI. So everything went to the fact that Valve would again say, “sorry, TI is postponed, the situation in the world does not allow.”

This whole confusion occurred most likely because Valve themselves were not completely sure that they would host The International this year. But due to the dissatisfaction of the fans and the teams themselves, they nevertheless changed their minds. The reason for the fan’s displeasure is understandable, “WE WANT SHOW.” The reason why the teams would be even more dissatisfied, and especially the organizations that sponsor these teams, is the loss of money. The prize money at Major tournaments this year has clearly become smaller. In addition, teams were banned from participating in other tournaments while the Dota Pro Circuit took place. So there was clearly a situation where expenses were greater than profits.

Therefore, roughly speaking, Valve had no choice. It was vitally important for them to host The International. And the problem is not only that the fans and teams are not satisfied, but Valve themselves could have suffered greatly from this. It’s no secret how much Gabe loves money. The International postponement is the postponement of the new Battle Pass. The Battle Pass postponement is a postponement of the influx of new and the return of old players. Dota 2 is gradually losing its audience, and the loss of the audience is equal to the loss of money. But the truth is that Valve and Gabe are not ready to lose money and do not want to do it.